Mikhailo Federov was not the first or even the second defense minister fired by Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy—but he is the first whose dismissal has drawn protests around the country, wall-to-wall coverage in Ukrainian media, and condemnation by foreign allies who fear that sacking the politically popular Federov will undermine hard-won gains in the country’s fight for survival. In any case, the move reflects central questions about the war and how to win.
On Wednesday, Zelenskyy fired Fedorov over his feud with Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, the much-maligned commander-in-chief of the armed forces. The president framed his decision as an obvious one.
Fedorov was “making procurements at his own discretion, rather than following the requests of the General Staff and the military,” Zelenskyy told other Ukrainian officials later on Wednesday, according to state media. “This specifically applied, for instance, to the procurement of artillery shells.”
On Thursday, Federov called a press briefing as one of his last acts in office. He said Syrskyi refused to acknowledge the new realities of war, much less present new solutions.
“War has changed completely. Drone technology and command systems change multiple times a year. We cannot rely on what worked two years ago,” he said.
He also criticized Syrskyi as “not ready to discuss problems openly face-to-face. Instead, he prefers to attend backroom meetings and weave intrigues.”
Federov then offered several suggestions for improving Ukraine’s military effort, including adding more forward drone assault forces and replacing Syrskyi.
After four years of largely defensive operations, Ukraine began to go on offense this year. Ukrainian forces have launched long-range strikes deep into Russia, while using robot-led ground assaults that have recaptured territory and frustrated Russian resupply while risking fewer Ukrainian lives. s.
Fedorov played a critical role in that turnaround, according to one government military analyst who asked not to be named.
For example, the analyst said, Federov was key to the effort to convince SpaceX CEO Elon Musk to ensure that the Starlink satellite communications service could be used by Ukrainian troops, but not Russian ones.
Beyond that, the analyst said, the former defense minister had a good plan to win.
“The theory of victory that Fedorov espouses has key elements that pave the most realistic path for Ukraine to achieve a qualitative military edge and render Russian superiority obsolete,” they said.
Former senior U.S. military officials, former senior Ukrainian military officials, military analysts, and most of the other sources who spoke to Defense One echoed the sentiments of the protesters and many pro-Ukraine voices on social media.
“It makes no sense,” said one former senior U.S. official who worked on Ukraine issues.
A second analyst, who works with the Ukrainian and U.S. governments, said, “The generals hate [Fedorov] the way generals hate civilians with better ideas than their own.
“A bad sign,” offered a third analyst.
“This is very bad,” said the former senior Ukrainian military official.
A former senior U.S. official said that the decision fit an unfortunate pattern in which the Ukrainian president favors loyalists over reformers.
“Sadly, while Zelenskyy is in many ways an exceptionally talented wartime leader, his Achilles heel is his preference for absolute loyalty among subordinates. This has led him to keep corrupt officials in place…for far too long after their misdeeds were common knowledge, and also to sack competent reformers who weren’t as beholden to him personally,” they said.
One prominent analyst and tech entrepreneur close to the Ukrainian government put it more colorfully: “Zelenskyy’s usual shit.”
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