Trump launches second war in two months: Four U.S. troops have died and more than 550 Iranians have been killed so far, including the leader of the country, in a new and ongoing war against Iran launched jointly by U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Saturday morning. Israel calls it “Lion’s Roar.” The U.S. calls it “Operation Epic Fury,” and it was launched without congressional authorization and virtually no public debate.
The war’s timing came from an intelligence tip about “a meeting of top Iranian officials [that] would take place on Saturday morning at a leadership compound in the heart of Tehran,” the New York Times reported Sunday. “Most critically, the C.I.A. learned that the supreme leader would be at the site.” U.S. and Israeli forces had been preparing for months to launch a new series of strikes inside Iran. But the tip spurred them “to adjust the timing” in the hopes of accomplishing one of Netanyahu’s longtime goals: killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Israeli officials said they had confirmed Khamenei’s death just hours after the initial attack. Trump confirmed it shortly afterward. The following morning, Iranian officials confirmed it as well. Top Iranian officials Defence Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and Revolutionary Guards commander Mohammed Pakpour were killed Saturday, too.
The U.S. troops were killed during the initial Iranian response, with another four wounded in those strikes targeting U.S. and allied forces across the region, Central Command officials said in an initial statement and a follow-up Monday morning. No further details were provided.
Trump reax: “Sadly, there will likely be more [U.S. deaths] before it ends. That’s the way it is—likely to be more,” the president said in a video posted to social media Sunday evening. “But America will avenge their deaths, and deliver the most punishing blow to the terrorists who have waged war against, basically, civilization. They have waged war against civilization itself. Our resolve, and likewise that of Israel, has never been stronger.”
Regional blowback: At least 10 people in Israel have perished along with five others across the Gulf region as a result of retaliatory attacks from Iranian forces throughout the weekend, according to al-Jazeera. Protesters raged against the U.S. in Pakistan, where at least 23 were killed after demonstrators breached the outer wall of the American Consulate in Karachi; that death toll included 11 in Skardu, and two others in Islamabad, according to Reuters. A British airbase in Cyprus was hit by a drone overnight as well; later, the civilian airport at Paphos was evacuated after an object was spotted on radars. In Bahrain, a tanker reportedly linked to refueling U.S. naval vessels was also hit in port Monday morning, triggering a crew evacuation.
Kuwaiti air defense systems mistakenly shot down three U.S. F-15 fighter jets Monday morning, officials from both countries announced afterward. “All six aircrew ejected safely, have been safely recovered, and are in stable condition,” the U.S. military said in a statement.
More after the jump…
Welcome to this Monday edition of The D Brief, a newsletter focused on developments affecting the future of U.S. national security, brought to you by Ben Watson with Bradley Peniston. It’s more important than ever to stay informed, so we’d like to take a moment to thank you for reading. Share your tips and feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1867, Congress passed the First Reconstruction Act, imposing military government on most of the rebel states and conditioning their readmission to the Union on ratifying the 14th Amendment.
Oil and gas production across the Middle East has slowed, with facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Israel temporarily shut down amid Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks since Saturday. “Brent crude was last up 9% at $78.9 a barrel, set for its biggest daily jump since 2020’s COVID-19-related turbulence and just surpassing its surge after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022,” Reuters reported Monday morning. The war also “ground shipping to a near halt in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil supply flows,” the wire service reported separately, noting Iran is “the third largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries,” and provides “about 4.5% of global oil supplies.”
Suddenly chatty: After weeks of avoiding an opportunity to make his case to the American public—and to Congress, which the Constitution charges with authorizing war—Trump spoke by phone with several media outlets about the new war over the weekend. But he gave a variety of justifications and warnings about why and what might come next.
- He told Axios the military strikes are intended to stop Iran’s nuclear program and to keep it from building missiles.
- He told the Washington Post the attacks this weekend are aimed at regime change and giving freedom to the Iranian people.
- He told the New York Times he hoped Iranian troops would turn over their weapons to the people.
- He told The Atlantic he plans to talk to Iran’s new leaders but that the previous, now-deceased leadership “waited too long” and “played too cute.”
Trump’s war forecast: “We figured it will be four weeks or so,” he told the Daily Mail. “It’s always been about a four-week process so—as strong as it is, it’s a big country, it’ll take four weeks, or less,” he predicted Sunday. He gave the Times a similar window (“four to five weeks”).
Rewind: Trump campaigned as an anti-war candidate. That’s not how he has governed. “No president in the modern era has ordered more military strikes against as many different countries as Trump,” Zachary Basu of Axios pointed out Monday. “He’s attacked seven nations, three of which—Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela—had never been targeted by U.S. military strikes. He authorized more individual air strikes in 2025 than President Biden did in four years.”
Latest poll: Just 27% of Americans approved of the strikes on Iran, while 43% disapproved and 29% were not sure, Reuters reported Sunday. And more than half of those surveyed (56%) said they think Trump “is too willing to use military force to advance U.S. interests.”
Notable: In launching the war, Trump claimed in a video address Saturday, “Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.”
But Iran was, in fact, not preparing to preemptively attack the U.S., White House officials told Congressional staff members Sunday, citing U.S. intelligence, the Associated Press reports. State Secretary Marco Rubio is expected to brief Congressional leadership on the Iran war sometime today.
Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth did not dispute that assessment in a press conference Monday. But he claimed Iran had amassed too many missiles for Trump to continue negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear and missile programs. “The former regime had every chance to make a peaceful and sensible deal,” Hegseth said Monday. “Tehran was not negotiating. They were stalling, buying time to reload their missile stockpiles and restart their nuclear ambitions…Our bases, our people, our allies—Iran had a conventional gun to our head as they tried to lie their way to a nuclear bomb.” Defense One’s Meghann Myers has more from that press conference, in which Hegseth did not mention the U.S. casualties.
Next: Hegseth is set to join Rubio and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine in a briefing before all lawmakers Tuesday on Capitol Hill.
Notable: The White House did not send any administration officials to Sunday talk shows to help make their case for war with Iran. But Trump confidant and longtime Iran hawk Sen. Lindsey Graham told NBC News, “Our goal is to make sure Iran cannot become again the largest state sponsor of terrorism.” When asked if Trump has a plan to guarantee that happens, Graham replied, “No. It’s not his job.”
Outside advice: “Killing the supreme leader was one thing. Ousting the regime will be another,” six reporters for The Atlantic warned, writing Saturday.
Historian reax: “The president is supposed to get Congress’s buy-in to go to war in part because that requirement forces an executive to convince the American people that a contemplated military action is worth their tax dollars and their lives,” Heather Cox Richardson of Boston College wrote Saturday. “Trump’s attack on Iran scorns the will of the people and their constitutional right to decide whether they want to pay for a war with their money and their lives.”
According to a Pentagon fact sheet, B-2 bombers, stealth fighter jets, recon aircraft, and other weapons were used to strike more than 1,000 targets in the first day of the U.S. war on Iran. On Sunday, U.S. Central Command released a list of U.S. weapons and platforms used in the first 24 hours of Operation Epic Fury, which began at 1:15 a.m. Eastern time on Feb. 28. Initial targets included aerospace forces and joint headquarters facilities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, Iranian navy ships and submarines, anti-ship and ballistic missile sites, command and control centers, military communications capabilities, and air defense systems, Defense One’s Thomas Novelly reports.
The operation also marked the combat debut of the Pentagon’s new LUCAS one-way attack drones—which, as Defense One’s Patrick Tucker reported, are near-clones of Iran’s Shahed-136.
U.S. combat jets used in the war’s first day included F-16, F/A-18, F-16, F-22, and F-35 fighter jets; and the A-10 Warthog. Electronic warfare, warning, and reconnaissance aircraft included the EA-18G, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, unspecified RC-135s, and MQ-9 Reapers. Mobility aircraft included tankers and C-17 and C-130 airlifters.
Munitions and defenses used against Iranian attacks included Patriot Interceptors, THAAD anti-ballistic missile systems, and M-142 high mobility artillery rockets.
Iranian drones and missiles began hitting facilities in Bahrain roughly two hours after the first U.S. and Israeli strikes on Tehran on Saturday morning, Hlad reports. Many targeted the headquarters of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command at Naval Support Activity Bahrain, while others hit residential buildings, and the Crowne Plaza—one of a handful of hotels popular with visiting U.S. officials and a frequent choice for military and embassy events.
When the drones came, “they sounded like lawnmowers or mopeds, and so loud it was like they were right outside,” an American connected to the U.S. military base in Bahrain said. “It sounded relentless.”
When the Navy base in Bahrain was attacked, it was nearly empty because an exercise drill the night before put it on “mission critical” status, the American said. However, the authorized departure of dependents was not called until an hour after the first strikes on Iran, so no families had left. Missile warnings started roughly 45 minutes later, and then the explosions began. Continue reading, here.
A fake memo also surfaced shortly after the attacks began, claiming that multiple apps were “compromised” and could be revealing servicemembers’ locations, Nextgov’s David Dimolfetta reports. The fake message claimed that Uber, Snapchat, and Talabat —a Middle East grocery service— were compromised and could reveal the location of service members. Some versions circulated also appear to say that locations of service members within the continental U.S. were also compromised.
CYBERCOM reax: “The command did not issue messages to U.S. service members to turn off location services on their electronic devices and did not issue messages that applications had been compromised,” an official said. Read more, here.
Related reading:
- “Thousands of Iranian government supporters mourning Khamenei chant ‘Death to America’,” AP reported in video Sunday;
- “Hundreds of Iranians cross border into Turkey, witness says,” Reuters reported Monday;
- “Amazon’s cloud unit reports fire after objects hit UAE data center,” the wire service reported Sunday;
- In commentary, read “Why the US attack on Iran is unlikely to produce regime change in Tehran,” via veteran diplomat Donald Heflin, a leader at Tufts University’s Fletcher School, speaking to The Conversation on Saturday;
- “Polymarket Iran Bets Hit $529 Million as New Wallets Win Big,” Bloomberg reported Saturday, flagging six new accounts that made more than a million apiece betting for the first time this weekend, which could indicate possible insider trading;
- “Polymarket defends its decision to allow betting on war as ‘invaluable’,” The Verge reported Saturday.
Around the Defense Department
Anthropic to be ejected from Pentagon service. In what had seemed like it might be the big news of the weekend, President Trump on Friday directed all federal agencies—including the Defense Department—to “immediately cease all use” of frontier AI firm Anthropic’s technology, though he also said there would be a six-month “phase out period.”
Hegseth subsequently said he would designate Anthropic a “supply chain risk,” a step the company said had never before been imposed on a U.S. firm. He did not explain why a supply-chain risk would be permitted to operate in the Pentagon’s classified networks for up to six more months.
Why? Earlier on Thursday, Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said that DOD wanted unfettered use of Anthropic’s tools “for all lawful purposes”—and said that the notion that DOD wants fully autonomous weapons or mass surveillance is a false narrative “peddled by leftists in the media.”
But Anthropic’s CEO said those are the only two limits he insists on. In “a narrow set of cases, we believe AI can undermine, rather than defend, democratic values. Some uses are also simply outside the bounds of what today’s technology can safely and reliably do,” Dario Amodei said in a Thursday statement.
Notable: Emil Michael “had been hammering out an alternative to Anthropic with its rival, OpenAI,” the New York Times reported Sunday. But after sealing that agreement, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday, “Altman claims his deal with the Pentagon includes the same prohibitions that Anthropic had wanted.”
Anthropic is not done, and officials vowed to sue the Defense Department over labeling it a “supply-chain risk,” the Times reports.
Read the full article here