With President Trump’s Army secretary in Ukraine, the U.S. has threatened to cut intelligence and weapons support to pressure Kyiv into accepting the White House’s latest and reportedly lopsided attempt to stop the Ukrainian effort to expel Russia’s invasion force, Reuters reported in a short update Friday. Officials familiar with the matter said the U.S. delegation wants Ukraine to agree to the new terms by next Thursday, which of course is Thanksgiving here stateside.
Why apply such pressure? Kyiv has previously rejected many of the conditions of the Russia-friendly deal. (Here’s a list.) The Wall Street Journal echoes that message with a report Friday teasing for their readers, “The leaked proposal reveals Ukraine would have to cede territory, while Russia would receive incentives.”
Read the text of the Trump administration’s 28-point plan via Reuters, which was one of several outlets to get their hands on the draft document Thursday.
Analyst reax: There is very little chance this deal goes through because Ukraine is highly unlikely to agree to it, according to Byron Callan of Capital Alpha Partners. Moreover, he argued Thursday, it’s such a bad deal that it will push Ukraine to rely less on Washington and more on Europe, further reducing the chance that Trump can accelerate an end to the conflict.
Second opinion: If reports of the 28-point text are true, the “plan amount[s] to Ukraine’s full capitulation to Russia’s original war demands,” a half-dozen analysts at the Institute for the Study of War warned atop their latest battlefield assessment.
“There are no provisions in the reported peace plan in which Russia makes any concessions, and ISW continues to assess that accepting Russian demands would set conditions for renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine,” the analysts add.
Bigger picture: “The Kremlin continues to use a combination of economic incentives and nuclear saber-rattling to extract concessions from the United States to normalize US-Russian relations without making reciprocal concessions to end the war,” ISW writes.
View detailed maps of presumed and contested territorial control across eastern Ukraine in ISW’s full report, here.
Welcome to this Friday edition of The D Brief, a newsletter dedicated to developments affecting the future of U.S. national security, brought to you by Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston. It’s more important than ever to stay informed, so thank you for reading. Share your tips and feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1986, National Security Council member Oliver North and his secretary Fawn Hall began shredding documents allegedly implicating them in what would later be known as the Iran–Contra affair.
Around the Defense Department
Most of the Air Force’s biggest programs will now be overseen by a 4-star under the deputy defense secretary. It’s a stunning turn of events for the service, and one seemingly at odds with Secretary Pete Hegseth’s declaration that the services should have more autonomy in acquisition, not less.
The news emerged on Tuesday when the White House nominated Air Force Lt. Gen. Dale White to become the first Direct Reporting Portfolio Manager for Critical Major Weapons Systems, which the Air Force says include the Sentinel and Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles, the B-21 bomber, the F-47 fighter jet, and the VC-25B presidential aircraft. If confirmed, White will be promoted to full general and report directly to Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg.
Air Force spox: we’re cool with that: “By directing the execution of critical Air Force programs, this DRPM role will help streamline the acquisition process, enabling faster decision-making and expediting the delivery of major systems.”
Outside reax: “I think the purpose is they want to centralize control of key programs or problem programs,” said Todd Harrison of the American Enterprise Institute. “But it is fundamentally at tension with some of the acquisition reforms that they’re pushing, which talk about delegating down, pushing down the decision-making authority to lower levels. This is going in the exact opposite direction.” Defense One’s Thomas Novelly has more, here.
Developing: Golden Dome is facing setbacks of its own. “President Donald Trump’s Golden Dome missile defense initiative is facing significant delays, hampered by the 43-day government shutdown and lack of a clear plan to spend the first $25 billion appropriated for the program this summer, eight sources familiar with the situation told Reuters.” Read that, here.
Update: Judge orders an end to the National Guard deployment to DC. On Thursday, U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb ruled that “while the president does have authority to protect federal functioning and property, he can’t unilaterally deploy the D.C. National Guard to help with crime control as he sees fit or call in troops from other states.” But Cobb also put her order on hold for 21 days to allow for an appeal. Associated Press: “Dozens of states took sides in Schwalb’s lawsuit, with their support falling along party lines.”
Reuters adds: “Trial courts have ruled against the troop deployments in every city where local leaders protested their presence, although an appeals court has blocked one of those rulings and allowed troops to remain in Los Angeles.” Read on, here.
U.S. contractors crossed into northeastern Mexico and put up signs on a beach claiming land for the Defense Department on Monday, CBS 4 News Rio Grande Valley reported this week with a photo of the signs, which were put up close to a SpaceX base outside of Brownsville, Texas.
That evening, the Mexican navy removed the signs, noting in a statement that their origin and “placement on national territory were unclear,” according to the Foreign Ministry. “The Ministries of the Navy and Foreign Affairs reaffirm their commitment to work with U.S. authorities and all relevant national agencies to ensure legal certainty at the shared border and strengthen the cooperation that defines the relationship between both countries,” they added.
So what happened, and why? Pentagon officials seem to have claimed they thought the border had moved. “Changes in water depth and topography altered the perception of the international boundary’s location,” according to a statement from the Pentagon shared with CBS News by the U.S. Embassy in Mexico. “Government of Mexico personnel removed 6 signs based on their perception of the international boundary’s location,” the Pentagon said, and added that its contractors will “coordinate with appropriate agencies to avoid confusion in the future.”
For what it’s worth: This is all happening “exactly where the first battles of the US-Mexico War (1846-48) were fought. In fact, Brownsville was named after Major Jacob Brown, who Mexican soldiers killed during the US invasion of northern Mexico,” said Columbia University history professor Karl Jacoby.
Developing: The top military lawyer at Southern Command believes U.S. military strikes on alleged drug-smuggling boats near Venezuela are illegal, but “his views were sidelined, according to six sources with knowledge of the legal advice raised legal concerns about boat strikes,” NBC News reported Wednesday.
He raised those concerns in August, but: “His opinion was ultimately overruled by more senior government officials, including officials at the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel,” Gordon Lubold, Courtney Kube and Dan De Luce reported for NBC Wednesday evening.
Why bring it up? “Since Sept. 2, it says, the administration has killed 82 people in 21 strikes on small vessels it says were transporting drugs bound for the United States,” NBC reports—noting, however, that “Administration officials have not put forward any specific evidence backing up their claims.” Continue reading, here.
Related: Virginia Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine warned Thursday the White House “is weighing land strikes in Venezuela and amassing an enormous number of military assets in the region, [and so] it’s long past time for Congress to finally get substantive and complete answers to the questions Democratic and Republican lawmakers have been asking for months” regarding its 21 boat strikes.
“The American people have no interest in stumbling into an illegal new war that would place the lives of our servicemembers at risk,” Kaine said in a statement Thursday.
Dispatch from Venezuela: “Perhaps it’s the mountain that stands in the way of the American military swarm, or maybe it’s their feeling that there’s so little to be done about it, but caraqueños are, for now, going about their normal business,” Phil Gunson of the International Crisis Group wrote for the New York Times Friday from Caracas. “If the traffic is less snarled than it once was, if the restaurants aren’t as full, it has less to do with the specter of war than with Venezuela’s hyperinflation and a repressive security apparatus. Even down at the coast, the American military menace is treated mostly with typical Venezuelan ribaldry, rather than dread. ‘Have you heard?’ people ask each other, jokingly. ‘The Marines have arrived!’”
Additional reading: “U.S. Ran a War Game on Ousting Maduro. Venezuela Fell Into Chaos,” the Times reported Thursday, citing an exercise from Trump’s first term.
See also, “The Web of Venezuelan Generals Accused of Fueling the Cocaine Trade,” via the Wall Street Journal, reporting Friday.
ICYMI: Trump on Thursday said telling U.S. troops to refuse illegal orders is “seditious behavior” punishable by death. We noted that one in Thursday’s newsletter; but if you missed it, the States Newsroom has more.
Reaction: Former CIA agent Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., and former Army Ranger Rep. Jason Crow, D.-Wisc., responded with a message for their fellow American citizens on Thursday. “This really isn’t about those of us who made the video” Trump reacted to, Slotkin said Thursday. “This is about who we are as Americans and how we’re gonna engage with people who we disagree with. I would hope that people of all backgrounds—Democrat, Republican, independent—would agree that threatening death for people you disagree with is beyond the pale of who we are as Americans.”
Crow: “It’s very telling that President Trump and those around him think it’s criminal simply for asking people to follow the law. This moment requires moral clarity,” he said. “Every American, regardless of your background, should unite and reject his calls for political violence.”
By the way: On the same day Trump alleged seditious behavior, a Trump-appointed judge warned (PDF), “This Court has grave concerns about the government’s apparent willingness to disregard this Court’s orders, even after previous admonition …” That case involved the illegal deportation of a Venezuelan man to El Salvador; that man is now missing. (h/t Aaron Blake of CNN)
Trump 2.0
Coast Guard quickly scuttles new hate-symbol policy. Thursday afternoon: “U.S. Coast Guard will no longer classify swastikas, nooses as hate symbols,” Tara Copp and Michelle Boorstein reported for the Washington Post. “The military service, which falls under the Department of Homeland Security, has drafted a new policy that classifies such items ‘potentially divisive.’”
The White House and Department of Homeland Security falsely said that the Post’s reporting was inaccurate. “Fake crap,” said DHS spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin.
But WaPo had the receipts, in the form of a November memo and an earlier Coast Guard document.
So later on Thursday, the Coast Guard’s acting commandant released a new memo averring that the Nazi emblem and the instrument of lynching were, in fact, symbols of hate. Adm. Kevin Lunday “is up for confirmation to become the Coast Guard’s commandant. His confirmation hearing was Wednesday and he spent Thursday meeting with lawmakers to secure their support,” the Post wrote.
“We don’t deserve the trust of the nation if we’re unclear about the divisiveness of swastikas,” a U.S. official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity due to a fear of reprisal. Read more, here.
Reminder: One of the most dangerous recent extremists in the U.S. military was a Coast Guard lieutenant whom the Justice Department at the end of Trump’s first term said planned terrorist attacks on Democrats and Supreme Court justices and was “inspired by racist murderers, stockpiled assault weapons, studied violence, and intended to exact retribution on minorities and those he considered traitors.”
Meanwhile in Chicago, after Customs and Border Protection agents shot an unarmed woman five times and then arrested her on claims that she rammed them with her car and brandished a gun, prosecutors this week asked to dismiss all criminal charges against her and her co-defendant.
“The decision to drop the case was a dramatic reversal, and it comes amid questions about the actions of one of the agents involved in the encounter,” ABC7 Chicago reported after the dismissal Thursday. The injured woman’s lawyer told ABC, “[T]he reason this is dismissed is because the facts in those [Justice Department and DHS] press releases were not true. This case was going to be a winner at trial regardless. These agents are in reports saying things that just are not true. So when you read the next press release, I mean, consider that.”
It’s also far from the only case where DHS/CBP agents have recently misled the courts. For the first time in Trump’s “Midway Blitz” immigration crackdown, a judge reviewed body cam video from DHS agents in Chicago, and found those agents made numerous allegations that were disproven by their own videos. Aaron Reichlin-Melnick of the American Immigration Council combed through the judge’s response to find at least nine glaring instances of DHS agents misleading the court regarding alleged assault by demonstrators in Chicago.
That includes several instances from top agent Gregory Bovino. The Chicago Tribune’s Gregory Pratt has more from the judge’s report Thursday, here.
Additional reading:
Lastly this week: Former Marine Corps Commandant Robert Neller and futurist Peter Singer teamed up to mark the 250th-birthday years of the U.S. Army and Marine Corps with an encomium to their ability to adapt—and some thoughts on what needs changing now. Watch that on YouTube, here.
Read the full article here