Alert: Trump wants to resume nuclear weapons tests
President Donald Trump says he’s ordered the military to begin testing nuclear weapons “immediately,” which would break a 33-year pause in U.S. and Pentagon policy going back to the end of the Cold War.
“The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country,” the president wrote on social media Wednesday. “Russia is second, and China is a distant third, but will be even within 5 years. Because of other countries[’] testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
What does “equal basis” testing mean? It’s not entirely clear, but it’s a possible reference to relatively recent Russian tests of experimental weapons like its Burevestnik nuclear-armed cruise missile or its allegedly nuclear-capable remote torpedo—both of which Putin says Russia tested (but did not detonate) this month.
By the way, at least one open-source researcher spotted suspected recent Russian military maneuvers likely related to the Burevestnik test, and shared their findings online here.
And in case you missed it, we flagged on Monday that “Russia continues to issue explicit nuclear threats as part of a multi-pronged effort seeking to deter continued U.S. pressure on Russia and support for Ukraine,” as analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War noted Sunday.
Last time Russia and China detonated nuclear weapons? 1990 for Moscow, which was the Soviet Union at the time; and 1996 for China. France tested a nuclear weapon in 1996 as well. India and Pakistan conducted two tests each in 1998. And North Korea tested weapons in 2006, 2009, 2013, twice in 2016, and again in 2017. The Pentagon last detonated a nuclear weapon in 1992.
Why test now? “To gather information—or to send a signal,” Reuters writes. However, the signaling element is arguably most notable in 2025, 33 years since the U.S. last conducted its own nuclear test. To do so again “would be seen in Russia and China as a deliberate assertion of U.S. strategic power,” and almost certain to trigger a follow-up demonstration by Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who “has repeatedly warned that if the United States resumed nuclear testing, Russia would too,” Reuters reports.
Worth noting: Trump has authorized bomber overflights of the Venezuelan coast this month as the U.S. military adds to its troop buildup in the Caribbean Sea. That buildup already features more naval vessels than at any time since the Cuban missile crisis in the early 1960s. Critics say it appears Trump is on the verge of authorizing a new war to oust Venezuelan dictator Nicholas Maduro.
- For what it’s worth, Trump’s approval rating is at an all-time low, according to fresh polling data from YouGov/The Economist.
The nuclear club: China ranks third worldwide with around 600 warheads. France is next with 290, followed by the United Kingdom with 225, India with 180, Pakistan with 170, Israel is believed to have 90, and North Korea is estimated to have around 50, according to the Federation of American Scientists.
And one other tangential development: Trump announced Wednesday that a new nuclear-powered submarine for South Korea will be built at a Korean-owned shipyard in Philadelphia. “Shipbuilding in our Country will soon be making a BIG COMEBACK. Stay tuned!!!” the president wrote in a short message on social media during his trip this week to Asia.
ICYMI: The maritime strategist to the previous Navy Secretary has thoughts on Trump’s approach to shipbuilding. Read that, here.
Welcome to this Thursday edition of The D Brief, a newsletter dedicated to developments affecting the future of U.S. national security, brought to you by Ben Watson with Bradley Peniston. It’s more important than ever to stay informed, so thank you for reading. Share your tips and feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1961, the Soviet Union tested the world’s most powerful nuclear weapon to date—the fusion “Tsar Bomba,” whose shockwave was so intense it circled the globe three times.
Around the Defense Department
At least three key Republican lawmakers pushed back on a White House plan to reduce U.S. troop levels in Eastern Europe. According to Reuters reporting Wednesday, “Between 1,000 and 1,200 U.S. troops rotated out [of Romania’s Mihail Kogalniceanu air base] a month ago and will not be replaced.”
Those troops are with the 2nd Infantry Brigade Combat Team of the 101st Airborne Division, officials at U.S. Army Europe and Africa announced Wednesday. “This is not an American withdrawal from Europe or a signal of lessened commitment to NATO and Article 5. Rather this is a positive sign of increased European capability and responsibility,” the command said in its statement.
“We strongly oppose the decision not to maintain the rotational U.S. brigade in Romania and the Pentagon’s process for its ongoing force posture review that may result in further drawdowns of U.S. forces from Eastern Europe,” Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Ala., and Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., said in a lengthy joint statement Wednesday.
“It is concerning that Congress was not consulted in advance of this decision, particularly given the clear, bipartisan, and bicameral support for a robust U.S. posture in Europe expressed in both the House and Senate versions of the FY26 National Defense Authorization Act,” the two men wrote. “The legislation also makes clear the Congressional intent that no modifications be made to the U.S. posture in Europe absent a thorough review process.”
“This decision also sends the wrong signal to Russia at the very moment President Trump is applying pressure to force Vladimir Putin to come to the table to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine,” Rogers and Wicker warned. “The President is right that U.S. force posture in Europe needs to be updated as NATO shoulders additional burdens and the character of warfare changes. But that update must be coordinated widely both within the U.S. government and with NATO,” they added.
“If you have to say it’s not ‘a signal of lessened commitment,’ then it probably is,” said Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., in his own statement Wednesday. “Training with allies is more extensive and less expensive than garrisoning at home. Retreating from Europe doesn’t advance deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, because Russia and China are working together to undermine us. If we’re serious about deterring them, we should be working more closely, not less, with allies and partners.”
Related: “Republican voters back sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine,” Semafor reported Thursday citing new survey results.
Developing: Trump’s Pentagon chief wants to “overhaul” how the U.S. sells weapons to allies, Politico reported Wednesday ahead of a planned speech by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth early next month. The plan is expected to move the military’s arms-export personnel in the Defense Security Cooperation Agency from “the policy side of the building…to the acquisition and sustainment shop,” which is led by Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Michael Duffey.
“Defense industry groups have pushed for such a merger,” Politico writes, cautioning, “It’s unclear how the Trump administration’s expected changes would mesh with separate acquisition reform proposals in the House and Senate versions of annual defense policy legislation. A compromise bill is expected to pass before the end of the year.” More, here.
New: Trump recently removed a rear admiral as chief of naval research and replaced him with “a 33-year-old former DOGE employee with no apparent naval experience,” the Bulwark reported Thursday.
Out: Rear Adm. Kurt Rothenhaus.
In: “Rachel Riley, a former partner at McKinsey & Company and Rhodes Scholar recipient who has been serving since January in a DOGE-related roles inside the Trump administration,” Joe Perticone of the Bulwark reports. More behind a subscriber wall, here.
Developing: The Marine Corps is tweaking its Force Design 2030 plan as it enters the second half of its post-Global War on Terror transformation this month, releasing an update for 2025 after skipping 2024, Defense One’s Meghann Myers reported Wednesday. That includes putting on hold plans to stand up a third Marine Littoral Regiment, the service’s new shallow-water unit concept, which had been planned for Guam.
Panning out: The Corps is evolving how it sees itself in more than one way, according to the Force Design update, and will codify that with a new “capstone concept.” That concept “will connect our operational ideas and state clearly what the Marine Corps provides to Naval and Joint Force: a globally responsive, lethal, and resilient combined-arms naval expeditionary force that projects power from sea to land and land to sea, fighting as a Marine Air Ground Task Force across all domains in contested environments to deter, deny, and defeat adversaries,” the update says.
Forecast: The concept is in staffing and on track to be released in a matter of months, said Marine spokesman Lt. Col. Eric Flanagan. Read more, here.
A new report to Congress pitching the Air Force’s 10-year fighter jet plan is missing key details and explanations, raising questions and concerns among defense experts, Defense One’s Thomas Novelly reported Wednesday. The long-term plan was ordered up by the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act. This initial version was due six months ago; new editions are required every April through 2029. Defense One obtained a copy of the unclassified version of the report.
The gist: The 24-page document details Air Force Secretary Troy Meink’s support of the interim defense strategy’s mandate “to protect the homeland, deter our adversaries, and project decisive airpower” by purchasing more F-15EXs, F-35s and F-47 aircraft. The report sets an ambitious goal of having nearly 1,400 tactical aircraft by 2030 but says the service does not have “total obligation authority” to place the necessary orders. The document also said the service needs a total of 1,558 manned tactical aircraft to “achieve low risk to resourcing, executing and sustaining combat operations.”
It’s unclear how the Air Force will reach those goals, said Todd Harrison, a defense budgeting expert at the American Enterprise Institute. He added the report didn’t include info from the Future Years Defense Program, the Pentagon’s five-year budget plan. “One thing that stood out to me is it doesn’t have actual tables in the unclassified document showing the force plans in the future,” Harrison said. “It doesn’t even show the FYDP plans.” Continue reading, here.
And in industry developments, House Armed Services committee members are begging Boeing leaders to negotiate with 3,200 union workers and end a nearly-three-month strike at the company’s fighter jet and munitions factories in St. Louis, Novelly reported separately.
In a letter published Wednesday, the bipartisan group of 17 HASC members also expressed alarm at reports that the company has been accelerating efforts to hire non-union workers instead. “For more than 80 days, including with the assistance of federal mediation, both sides have yet to come to terms on a new contract,” the letter said. “[W]e are concerned by recent reports that Boeing Defense has inquired on hiring permanent replacements for striking workers in manufacturing roles…we are urging both sides to come back to the table to negotiate to conclude this ongoing, disruptive strike.”
However, company leaders continued to seem unbothered by the labor dispute. Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said Wednesday during the company’s third-quarter earnings call that production on Joint Direct Attack Munitions, the Air Force’s T-7A trainer, and the Navy’s MQ-25 unmanned aerial refueler continued during the strike. A Boeing spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Wednesday about the Congressional letter and more details about the strike’s effects on other defense programs such as the company’s F-15EX, F/A-18, and F-47 fighter jets. Read more, here.
Additional reading:
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