To car enthusiasts, the words “market share” might mean nothing when compared to “turbocharged” or “wide-open throttle” or “zero to 60.” But the truth is, every automaker wants to outsell their rivals because it keeps dealers and shareholders happy, can mean better profitability, keeps assembly plants humming, and signals strong brand loyalty among customers. Selling more cars than your competitors means growing market share, and it’s a fierce battle in the US to gain just a few tenths of a point from year to year.
So, as 2026 sales numbers are studied by Cox Automotive analysts as the first half of the year closes next week, there are some significant market swings on the part of certain automakers. To be blunt, these changes could result in nothing short of a tectonic shift among the top four automakers, based on US sales volume, by year’s end.
To give this some context, back in 2007, Toyota passed Ford to become the No.2 automaker in the US and hasn’t trailed Ford since then. In 2021, Toyota even outsold General Motors, knocking the General out of the No.1 position for the first time since 1931. GM came back, but it could lose its top spot again. Moreover, Ford could fall even further. And the company gunning for Ford’s spot might shock you.
Hyundai Is 73,000 Sales From Beating Ford
While Toyota once again threatens to outsell GM in 2026, an even bigger surprise lurks in Cox’s first-half data sheet: Hyundai Motor Group, the South Korean conglomerate that has made big strides in product quality over the past 25 years. The company is within 73,000 vehicle sales of surpassing Ford for third spot.
In short, Hyundai is gaining share while Ford is losing it. The numbers tell the tale: Cox estimates Hyundai will sell 920,873 vehicles through the first half (representing 3.1% growth over first-half 2025), while Ford sales are pegged at 993,852 (representing a sizable 10.3% dip from first-quarter 2025).
How do these sales swings impact first-half market share? Cox says Ford loses 1 full point, to 12.6% market share, while Hyundai reaches 11.7% share, a gain of 0.7%. The gap is indeed closing.
Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist for Cox Automotive, said Hyundai Motor Group’s three automotive brands, Hyundai, Kia, and Genesis, have done well in the first half, while Ford is having a challenging year.
“If we look a year from now, if these rates continue, Hyundai could potentially overtake Ford as the number three manufacturer here in the US market.”
–Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough
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