Reading the tea leaves is a dicey business for automotive industry forecasters, especially over the past two years, as a change in White House administrations signaled a 180-degree turn from supporting battery-electric vehicles to one favoring internal-combustion engines of every size.
How can automakers plan for the future while fuel prices fluctuate with each bombing in Iran, while tariffs hinder profitability and force consumers to pay more for new cars, while emissions regulations swing quickly from strict to lenient, and while lagging consumer confidence makes it hard to contemplate buying a new vehicle?
Truck Demand Strong Despite Affordability Concerns, Says GM
When General Motors held its conference call yesterday to discuss second-quarter financial results, an analyst asked whether the automaker is seeing evidence that more cost-conscious shoppers are picking smaller crossovers or SUVs instead of expensive full-size pickups. CEO Mary Barra said no, and that demand remains “really strong” for full-size pickups and SUVs.
“That’s been predicted for several months now, and it’s just not happening.”
“We’re building everything that we can sell,” Barra said about demand for full-size pickups and SUVs. She also said she believes consumers will not steer away from big vehicles in response to specific events – she didn’t identify any, but was perhaps referring to spikes in gas prices or a supply-chain disruption. “I think something would have to happen for a long period of time,” Barra said in answering the question.
But Sales Are Down, Way Down In Some Cases
It’s worth noting that, while Barra’s outlook is favorable on GM trucks and SUVs, sales data through the first half of 2026 isn’t as positive. Nearly every full-size truck and SUV in the GM stable is down year-over-year: Cadillac Escalade sales are down 17%, Chevy’s full-size SUVs, the Suburban and Tahoe, are down 17.5% and 9.1%, and the GMC Yukon is down 7.7%. In trucks, America’s second-best-selling vehicle, the Silverado, is down 4.6%. The only body-on-frame full-sizer in positive territory is the GMC Sierra, and it’s only barely positive at 0.9%.
New Trucks More Profitable, Eventually
The analyst also asked whether the predicted shift in mix would be apparent in 2027, but Barra did not answer directly, saying generally that “we’re going to be guided by the consumer” and that she considers GM “extremely well positioned from an affordability perspective” to meet customer needs while benefiting from improved profitability across the entire SUV range.
“We’re seeing strength” in the large truck and SUV segments, she said, even though a sales mix leaning to less-expensive crossovers “has been predicted now for probably about three or four months.”
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