The China Intelligence: What open sources tell us about Chinese forces, weapons, and strategy.
The People’s Liberation Army is building an “invisible net” across the western Pacific, a five-layer, seabed-to-space sensor architecture known as the Transparent Ocean strategy that challenges the ability of U.S. and allied submarines (our “black sharks”) to maneuver and hide.
The threat was on display in August during the PLA Navy and Russia’s Joint Sea-2025 exercises near Vladivostok. In joint anti-submarine warfare drills, Chinese and Russian forces linked their communications and shared hydro-meteorological and air-sea tracks in real time. The goal, according to Chinese state media, was to leave deep-diving submarines with nowhere to hide.
This exercise served as an early demonstration of a mature, automated kill web that China plans to spread across multiple seas and oceans. Intended to enable persistent, real-time tracking across vast areas, the web will consist of five layers:
- Ocean Star Cluster (space): A constellation of satellites, centered on the Guanlan interferometric radar altimetry and ocean-profiling lidar system. This layer provides wide-area surveillance and flags specific locations, cueing the lower layers to wake up and focus.
- Air-Sea Interface (surface/near-surface): Smart buoys, wave gliders, and unmanned surface vessels hold station across vital straits and shelves. They sample the upper ocean and act as crucial routers, translating slow underwater acoustic data packets into high-bandwidth satellite or cellular bursts for transmission ashore.
- Starry Deep Sea (water column): Deep floats, long-range gliders, and autonomous underwater vehicles patrol below the mixed layer for weeks, profiling the ocean environment and towing acoustic payloads. They fill the gaps identified by the orbital layer.
- Undersea Perspective (seabed): This is the backbone of the entire grid. Connected by undersea cables, observatories and hubs host passive arrays, precise clocks, and navigation beacons. They provide essential docking, data offload, and recharging for visiting vehicles, allowing unmanned submarines to loiter quietly and redeploy without surfacing, which drastically extends their endurance and reduces exposure.
- Deep Blue Brain (data fusion): The core command layer that fuses the entire picture and orchestrates sensing. It’s the tasking and decision-support hub that merges data from space, air, surface, and seabed, ready to hand targets to combat networks.
In an influential primer, “From Kill Chain to Kill Web,” PLA theorists warn that a traditional, linear “kill chain” collapses when a single node is destroyed. Their response is the “maritime adaptive kill web,” a resilient, mesh-style network that offers multiple paths from sensor to shooter and promises instant bypasses for any node failures.
A mature Transparent Ocean system is designed to automate this flow at scale. For instance, a Dalian Naval Academy study demonstrated a space-guided sea strike model that can compute 45 alternative paths and rank them by strike power and closure time. A PLA team developed an algorithm that reassembles broken chains by matching surviving nodes to the next‑best route. This ability to instantly reroute broken kill paths, a measurable metric for the PLA, is key to keeping the web fighting under fire.
This concept has moved quickly from the lab to the ocean, with a number of building blocks in the Transparent Ocean blueprint coming to fruition over the last decade. It also shows the sea-bed side of civil-military fusion efforts.
On the sensor side, Zhejiang University’s Zhairuoshan observatory first linked seabed probes to shore in 2014 and proved real-time undersea data flow. Today, the China Academy of Electronics and Information Technology runs a cross-domain maritime network that spans space, air, shore, surface, and subsea platforms to support situational awareness and environmental monitoring. Ocean University of China reported building the first Kuroshio Extension observation system, a chain of anchored moorings and repeat stations complemented by a roaming layer that keeps watch on one of the Western Pacific’s busiest water highways.
China’s extra-large uncrewed undersea vehicle, or XLUUV, effort is also maturing, with multiple large prototypes and a growing undersea force that provides the test beds to refine payloads, autonomy, and logistics for vehicles that will seed and service the sensor web. With backing from the government’s “Deep Sea Key Technologies & Equipment” initiative, the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Shenyang Institute of Automation kicked off “Project 912“ in 2018 to build an Orca-class XLUUV. More recently, Tianjin University’s Haiyan deep-sea gliders have shown ultra-long endurance in the Pacific, while Blue Whale wave-gliders act as surface relays, holding station for weeks and backhauling data from subsurface nodes to shore. Advances in quieting, batteries, and acoustic arrays have since moved from labs and academic settings into PLA trials, which is exactly what a kill web needs: more sensors, more routes, and faster handoffs.
The relay tier is also growing. New cross-domain buoy designs and systems can switch among satellite links, cellular networks, and acoustic modems, closing the gap between UUVs, seabed sensors, and coastal command posts. The PLA Navy has also begun collaborating with various state-sponsored institutions to develop algorithms that enable communications buoys to select the best link on the fly and move data in real time from the water column to shore, a potential sign that a fieldable relay layer exists today.
China is also working to develop the power systems needed for Transparent Ocean. Chinese studies stress that persistent deep-depth UUVs patrols will rely on endurance and efficiency. This mirrors Western research efforts on long-duration UUV autonomy and energy harvesting. As a result, China’s near-term priorities in the power realm include higher-specific-energy batteries, seawater metal-air cells for expendable nodes, and pierless recharging at seabed docks and cabled hubs.
Reliability remains the bottleneck in contested waters. Optics need clear water and precise alignment. Cellular communications die offshore. Acoustics degrade in cluttered littorals. Hence the emphasis on multi-pipe relays and “wake-up” schemes that sip milliwatts of power until needed. Recent Chinese studies describe cross-domain communication buoys that select the best link in real time, whether satellite, cellular, or acoustic. Likewise, Harbin Engineering University patents detail ultra-low-power acoustic wake-ups that let dormant nodes sleep for months and join the net only when cued.
The U.S. and its allies should watch for Transparent Ocean work, especially in key choke points such as the South China Sea, waters around Taiwan, the Luzon Strait, the Straits of Malacca, and approaches to Guam.
A wider, denser and more effective Chinese sensor network will leave allied submarines with fewer places to hide, while faster cue-to-fire loops shrink the window within which they can be targeted. This will significantly complicate operations not just in a potential future war, but also peacetime covert and intelligence-surveillance-reconnaissance operations.
To contend with the changing seas, the United States and its allies should adopt a “mesh-vs-mesh” approach that recognizes that hiding is a shrinking option and instead builds on twin pillars of counter-sensing and counter-UUV operations. Each will require the U.S. Navy and its allies to develop new tactics and doctrine. Sensors can be foiled with deception and jamming, along with building more resilient, interoperable communications. In turn, UUVs can themselves be hunted, disrupted or even defeated through both kinetic and electromagnetic means.
Working with partners in the region will also be essential to out-cycle Beijing’s new web of observation. Australia’s Ghost Shark can send payload-capable UUVs forward, while Japanese investments in long-range underwater communications can strengthen command and control around the Ryukyu Arc.
Allies should stitch these efforts into more cohesive acquisitions and a shared, rehearsed playbook. Near-term priorities must include joint deception drills and seabed docking trials that remove human logistics from long-endurance UUV operation, as well as being prepared to deploy or even pre-position counter-UUV patrol boxes where PLA buoys and gliders already operate.
Tye Graham is a Senior Researcher with BluePath Labs and a retired U.S. Army Foreign Area Officer.
P.W. Singer is Strategist at New America and the author of multiple books on technology and security, including Wired for War, Ghost Fleet, Burn-In, and LikeWar: The Weaponization of Social Media.
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