Foreign diplomats have long watched America’s increasingly toxic politics with intrigue if not outright dread. The attempted assassination of Donald Trump has some of them now predicting that he will likely win the presidential race this November — and that more U.S. political violence is on the way.
These assessments, no doubt being rapidly typed into classified cables to send to superiors back home, are not made willy-nilly. For diplomats from countries friendly with the United States, the conclusions are especially unnerving, because instability in America could mean instability everywhere.
Diplomats’ words also carry particular weight: It is their job to watch other nations’ politics closely, and they help shape how their governments react.
In conversations with such envoys from three continents, it became clear to me that their main takeaway feels almost inescapable after an assassin’s bullet apparently grazed and bloodied the Republican candidate’s ear on Saturday.
“The shooting makes Trump’s victory in the election more likely,” one Latin American diplomat said.
“It is a powerful drive for that,” admitted a senior European diplomat.
“It sealed his victory,” an African diplomat predicted.
(All were granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic candidly.)
These diplomats are well aware that four months is a long stretch in an already overlong U.S. election cycle. Even if the vote were days away, wild swings are still possible. Ask France. And they’ve been wrong before: Plenty of foreign diplomats thought Trump would lose in 2016 and expected he would score a second term in 2020.
But already in recent weeks, some capitals had come to see Trump as a stronger candidate because of President Joe Biden’s weakness, exemplified by his disastrous debate performance. Democrats are fighting over whether Biden’s age and health make him fit to remain their candidate.
Foreign governments routinely prepare for all political outcomes from elections, but a loss of confidence in Biden can have significant consequences for the United States. Other nations may decide to curtail or delay cooperation on important matters with the Biden team, believing it’s best to wait for the arrival of a new administration.
Some diplomats suspect that because Trump has been the victim of political violence — even though he’s often accused of calling for it — it makes it harder for Biden and other Democrats to criticize him, at least for a while.
A bloodied Trump even managed to pump his fist in the air and shouted “Fight! Fight!” as security officials rushed him away in an iconic moment projected around the world.
All of this “makes Trump’s personal image, charisma and personal authority more powerful. It will be much harder to challenge him either internally or internationally,” the Latin American diplomat said.
There are Republicans and Democrats calling for calm and national unity. But such words are unlikely to lead foreign officials to change their growing belief that U.S. political violence is something to expect rather than to be surprised by.
They’ve seen too much of it already, including the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol.
It’s not lost on the diplomats that, immediately after the assault on Trump, which killed one bystander, some on the right and left immediately threw accusations at each other, trying to politically capitalize on what happened. It’s also not lost on them that the attack on Trump comes just before the launch of the Republican National Convention, a forum likely to carry many tirades against the other party.
“Everyone is trying to see how it will give way to more polarization,” another European diplomat said of the attack.
(Also not lost on many foreign diplomats: The U.S. has less standing to lecture other countries on political violence now.)
A Trump win could mean radical shifts in U.S. policy toward many countries. Trump has a more idiosyncratic and transactional approach to the world than Biden, often dismissing U.S. allies and seeming more open to deal-making with adversaries such as the boss in the Kremlin. European governments are especially worried about what a Trump win will mean for Ukraine, and whether he will abandon Kyiv as it fends off a Russian invasion.
But many world leaders, even those clearly wary of Trump, nonetheless expressed horror and dismay at the violence he faced.
Some diplomats told me they worried that America’s rivals, such as Russia, China and Iran, could use the moment to spread disinformation among U.S. citizens, deepening polarization and spurring more violence.
“Gun control is an issue,” the senior European diplomat pointed out.
That was a nod to a common concern among foreign officials, many of whom view the widespread availability of firearms in the United States and the endless mass shootings with astonishment.
For many foreign officials, especially those in countries that are friendly with Washington, stability in America is key to events elsewhere.
While no one was predicting a second U.S. civil war is in the offing, even a distracted U.S. government means global problems that need Washington’s involvement could get neglected, feeding instability beyond U.S. borders.
Some foreign diplomats also are asking whether, in the wake of the assassination attempt, a future President Trump will find more reasons and less pushback in trying to impose an authoritarian vision on America.
He has often expressed sympathy for anti-democratic ideas.
“The main concern is for U.S. democracy,” the Latin American diplomat said. “There is a real potential for radicalism and increased violence. The reactions of Trump himself and other politicians will be crucial: Will they raise the temperature or lower it?”
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