As developed countries throughout the world, including the United States, face a growing fertility crisis, South Korea has shown some promising signs of reversing its plummeting birth rate.
The United States fell below the replacement birth rate (2.1 births per woman) in 2007. While the fertility rate fluctuated slightly in previous decades, it remained near replacement levels until the Great Recession (2007–2009). After that, birth rates steadily declined, and the U.S. fertility rate has remained below 2.1 ever since.
Canada’s birth rate is even lower, at 1.3. In Britain, it’s 1.57. France is only marginally better, at 1.79. As of 2022, no developed country in the Western world has a replacement birth rate.
This crisis has been even more pronounced in Asia. China’s fertility rate has plummeted to 1.0-1.1, a sharp decline from 2.6 in 1980, despite the end of its one-child policy in 2016. Japan, which has been grappling with population decline for decades, saw its fertility rate fall to 1.26 in 2022.
Taiwan’s fertility rate hit a record low of 0.87 in 2023, while Singapore’s stands at 1.05, both among the lowest globally. Even traditionally higher-fertility nations like India are seeing declines, with its birth rate dropping from 5.9 in 1950 to 2.0 in 2023, signaling a shift toward below-replacement fertility in the coming decades.
But nowhere have fertility rates declined as severely as in South Korea, which has had the lowest birth rate in the world since 2018. 2023 marked a new dismal low, with just 0.7 births per woman – down sharply from 1.48 births per woman in 2000 and 6.0 births per woman in 1960.
Last year, however, in a small yet nonetheless remarkable turnaround, South Korea’s birth rate inched up slightly by 0.03 births per woman. This marked the first birth rate increase in South Korea in nine years and reversed a trend of two straight years of a decrease in overall population.
Most experts agree that President Yoon Suk Yeol’s policies promoting marriage and family formation and raising awareness about the societal and economic perils of population decline are to thank.
Yoon’s pro-family strategy has aimed to create a society where “we work and care together” to address the low birth rate. The plan facilitated women’s access to employment, supported their career development, and encouraged them to start families. It included a gender-focused approach to stable job opportunities with maternity and paternity leave policies.
Yoon’s strategy builds on previous policies by offering pregnant women cash bonuses and tax credits, financial support for child healthcare to low-income families, coverage for infertility treatments, free childcare services for all families, and increased affordable housing availability.
“The foundational change in our thinking about population growth was a paradigm shift,” Kyung Ae Cho, a former Secretary of the Korea Population, Health, and Welfare Association, told me in an interview. “It was crucial to uphold the value of marriage and communicate its importance to the youth.”
Initial data showed that the increase in birth rate (unsurprisingly) was driven by an increase in marriages. In 2024, South Korea experienced a 14.9 percent increase in marriages, marking the most significant spike since data collection began in 1970. The trend builds on 2023 data, when marriages saw a one percent increase for the first time in 11 years.
“There has been a shift in social values, showing more positive attitudes toward marriage and childbirth,” said Park Hyun-jung, an official at Statistics Korea, the government organization responsible for collecting data on the country.
“Measuring each policy’s impact on the rise in new births is challenging, as they also influenced one another,” Ms. Park added.
South Korea still has a long way to go to get back to a replacement birth rate, but its progress over the past two years nonetheless provides hope that government policy can help address the fertility crisis.
That’s good news for the United States with President Donald Trump back in the White House. During his 2024 campaign, Trump proposed a slate of policies similar to those adopted in South Korea to make it easier for couples to get married and have children, including expanding the child tax credit to $5,000.
Thanks to Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, couples can currently receive up to a $2,000 tax credit per child. But if Congress fails to renew – or expand – the law before it expires at the end of this year, that amount will be reduced to $1,000.
“Above all, the Republican Party will always support families, babies, and life, and it is very important to the Republican Party,” Trump said during a speech at the Faith and Freedom Conference last October. “We believe that faith in God and our Judeo-Christian values are essential to a healthy American society. We believe in family.”
Vice President JD Vance added during his speech at the annual March for Life this spring that it is “the task of government to make it easier for young moms and dads” to bring children into the world.
For President Trump, promoting marriage and family life is a critical part of his mission to “Make America Great Again.” South Korea has provided proof of concept that Trump’s policies could indeed reverse years of declining birth rates and avert a looming population collapse.
Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.
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