Democrats’ millions weren’t enough to flip a pair of House special elections in Florida after President Donald Trump deployed MAGA surrogates to his adopted home state. But they did find some cause for celebration at the margins — literally.
The victories add two more seats to Speaker Mike Johnson’s narrow majority in the House. And the special election in Florida’s 6th District, a nail-biter for many national GOP operatives given that state Sen. Randy Fine was outraised by progressive challenger Josh Weil 10-to-1, did end up as a Republican win.
But the surprise of the night came from the Panhandle’s 1st District, where former Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis won against Democrat Gay Valimont by nearly the same margin that Fine did — something operatives hadn’t predicted in the days leading up to the election.
The results showed Valimont was the first Democrat in recent history to win Escambia County, which includes military-heavy Pensacola.
“Tonight’s results represent a historic overperformance for Democrats and show that voters are already rejecting Trump’s extreme agenda,” Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said. She added that any Republicans who were in a seat where Trump won by 15 points or less “should be scared about their reelection chances.”
Democratic money flooded into the 6th District, with Weil telling POLITICO he raised $14 million, spending heavily on digital fundraising and attracting plenty of out-of-state dollars. Fine, in comparison, did not hit $1 million as of mid-March but was aided by a late influx of outside money. In the 1st District, Patronis mentioned Valimont’s higher fundraising total specifically when speaking to reporters: “Even their $6 million could not overcome one simple post on social media by Donald Trump.”
It was the Fine race, not the Patronis contest, that had garnered a visit during early voting by Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin. On Tuesday, he said in a statement that the results marked an overperformance by Democrats, given that Trump won each seat by more than 30 points in November and Fine and Patronis saw a 14- and 15-point victory, respectively. Martin said the results came from voters who wanted to “voice their anger at Donald Trump and Elon Musk,” warning a “reckoning is coming” in 2026.
In the final weeks before the election, Republicans sent in national and state reinforcements to bolster Fine’s campaign, even deploying Trump to help in both races — through a tele-town hall with voters rather than a rally or video appearance. Ultimately, the MAGA-infused showing worked in the two districts where Republicans far outnumber Democrats.
Top Democrats often say they can’t give up on Florida because of the state’s growing electoral significance. But the losses Tuesday, despite coming close, have some supporters urging the party to more carefully pick its battles.
“Democrats can be suckers,” said prominent trial attorney John Morgan, an unaffiliated voter who has given chunks of his fortunes to Democratic candidates. “They pour money into a race where they have zero chance. But their desire is so overwhelming they blow money.”
He encouraged Democrats to “play where you can win” and said they should have let Trump’s early actions that supporters are “pissed” about percolate before adding the quip, “Money won’t buy you love,” and texting a reporter a YouTube video of the Beatles singing the 1964 hit.
Gov. Ron DeSantis, who used to hold the 6th District seat under slightly different boundaries, took several opportunities Tuesday to jab Fine specifically. The two have butted heads ever since Fine flipped his endorsement from DeSantis to Trump in the 2024 presidential primaries, and Fine has also gotten in squabbles with local officials.
“The president got really bad advice about endorsing him and was told that he was the only candidate that could win,” DeSantis said Tuesday on The Dana Show with Dana Loesch, “which is totally not true.”
The 1st District seat had been held by former Rep. Matt Gaetz before he resigned to take on a short-lived confirmation battle to become Trump’s attorney general. Valimont hammered Patronis for residing outside the district when he first jumped into the race. But she also criticized him over the state’s insurance crisis, citing his key role in regulating the industry.
Valimont also highlighted federal budget cuts, including those to the Department of Veterans Affairs, as a reason for people in the military-dominated district to question their backing of Republicans.
Democrats crowed about the Escambia County flip, and Martin said Valimont’s showing “spells trouble for Republicans everywhere.”
Republicans, however, brushed off the closer-than-expected showing.
“Since 2015, we’ve run more than a dozen specials in Florida, and each one is unique and each one is indeed special,” said veteran Florida Republican political consultant Anthony Pedicini. “All that matters is that our team won. If it was 1 vote or 20 — point is, a win is a win.”
Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) likewise said special elections were aberrations. “When there’s a presidential race, everybody knows to go vote — even a governor’s race, but when there’s a special election, it’s hard to get people to go out and vote,” he said.
GOP leaders were boasting about forecasted victories during the late afternoon as GOP turnout numbers came in. Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power shared a meme on X of a dumpster on fire being carried along by floodwaters, captioned, “Everything’s fine.”
“The smell of them burning $20 Million!!!” chimed in RPOF Executive Director Bill Helmich, referring to the massive amount of fundraising that went Democrats’ way in the races.
At the end of the evening, Power said the results “[reinforce] the state’s position as the cornerstone of the conservative movement” given how significantly the party was outspent.
The GOP wins will likely lead Democrats to once again consider how to best message their positions in Florida as they struggle to regain their footing in the Trump era. State Rep. Anna Eskamani, a progressive who is running for mayor of Orlando — where Weil lives — said the results were indications the party needed to keep organizing, “register voters, and prove our value as Democrats to voters.”
Weil, a public school teacher, told POLITICO ahead of the election that he thought progressive messaging had helped him, including heavily campaigning on “Medicare for All.”
The policy, whose biggest champion is independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, generally refers to abolishing private health insurance in favor of a single, government-run health plan.
“It’s a popular talking point with seniors,” he said. “It’s a popular talking point with veterans. It’s a popular talking point with everyone. … No one loves their health insurance company, no one — not Republicans, not Democrats.”
“Trying to sell Republicans on a Democrat that’s Republican-light,” he added, “is never going to work.”
Lisa Kashinsky contributed to this report.
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