Virginia Democrats have a new message for the tens of thousands of federal workers who will vote in their state elections this fall: Republicans stood by silently as President Donald Trump came for your jobs.
The state’s off-year races are often a bellwether for the national mood a year before the midterms. But they are poised to take on even more significance this November because so many government employees and contractors who live in Northern Virginia are experiencing firsthand the impact of the Trump administration’s attempt to shrink the federal bureaucracy.
For Democrats, who have the thinnest of grips on the House of Delegates and are eagerly seeking to reclaim the governor’s mansion, it may be an opening.
“Of course it’s going to have an impact on the elections of Virginia, because we are seeing put into motion the potential destruction of massive amounts of our economy and of the very work that people have dedicated their lives to on behalf of our country,” said state Del. Dan Helmer, the Democratic campaign chair for the Virginia House of Delegates.
Trump has steamrolled through his first few weeks in office, while Democrats have struggled to muster the kind of resistance they put up during his first term. But in recent days, they have started to zero in on Elon Musk and his so-called Department of Government Efficiency as a foil, painting the tech mogul as an unelected South African billionaire wreaking chaos on everyday Americans.
At Trump’s behest, Musk has used DOGE as a beachhead to attack the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, USAID and the Department of Education. DOGE has offered buyouts to thousands of federal workers and threatened layoffs to those who don’t take it.
And if Musk and DOGE have given national Democrats an opening to make an argument against Republicans — Musk himself is less popular than Trump, according to recent polling — the Virginia elections may stand as a test case.
The state is home to more than 140,000 federal workers, many of them concentrated in the northernmost counties closest to Washington. And there are even more contractors who work for companies dependent on the funds Musk has sought to “delete.” The state also has some areas deeply entwined with the military and its contractors, such as Hampton Roads, that are likely to be affected by cuts.
Helmer and others are betting voters will decide to take out their frustration at the Republicans controlling the federal government on the Republicans in Richmond.
“Unlike Republicans who are crowing in Washington right now, Republicans in Virginia are almost silent,” Helmer said. “They are not speaking on the floor to Trump’s agenda. They are not celebrating the work that’s being done in Washington. They know in their hearts that this is hurting their constituents.”
Democrats are optimistic, but they have limited room to grow. Northern Virginia has been trending more solidly Democratic in recent years, and there are only a handful of competitive districts there. In two Prince William County-based seats, Democrats are defending an incumbent and also trying to oust a Republican. They are also targeting another Republican who represents part of Loudoun County. But Democrats already hold every state House seat in Arlington and Fairfax counties — the areas closest to Washington and most impacted by DOGE.
Still, Hampton Roads has some potentially competitive districts. And then there’s the governor’s race. Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic front-runner, criticized Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin in a recent MSNBC interview for his alignment with Trump, while stressing the economic impact of the buyouts and cuts proposed by DOGE.
“The idea that we would have a president and a governor who is standing by as said president says, ‘We’re going to push them out of the workforce?’ I mean, this is a kitchen-table issue in Virginia,” she said.
Virginia Republicans argue that Democrats failed to address voters’ economic anxieties when they had total control of the state’s government — and that they will punish them at the ballot box instead.
“Our theory of the case is different from Democrats’,” said Garren Shipley, a spokesperson for House Republican Leader Todd Gilbert. “Power bills in Virginia are high, and going higher. Democrats refuse to take any action. Meanwhile, Virginians have to spend hundreds of dollars more every month just to keep the lights on. Democrats have shown they don’t care about that, or many other issues that impact Virginians every day,”
Democrats control both chambers of the Virginia legislature, and while they work to weaponize Musk, Republicans will be painting Democrats as ineffectual incumbents in Richmond. That includes the Virginia House Republicans and the Republican State Leadership Committee, a national group that seeks to win state legislatures for the GOP.
“Democrats are worried about their standing with Virginians because they know this legislative session has been nothing but broken promises under their leadership,” said Mason Di Palma, an RSLC spokesperson. “They say they want tax cuts and better community safety, but their track record tells a different story, and Virginians deserve leaders who truly prioritize their needs and enact real change.”
But Democrats do have history on their side. Virginia voters have been known to punish the party in the White House during off-year elections — and rarely has a White House enacted policies so uniquely targeted toward the Virginia voter.
“It will redound to the benefit of Democrats and the ill of my Republican friends,” said Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), who represents Northern Virginia. “I think there will be buyer’s remorse.”
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