Resistance to antibiotics has led to one million worldwide deaths each year since 1990, for a total of 36 million.
It is expected to cause more than 39 million more fatalities by 2050 — three per minute.
That’s according to a large study led by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) Project, a partnership between the University of Oxford and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.
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After analyzing 520 million health records, the researchers provided future estimates for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations and 11 infectious syndromes across 204 countries and territories, according to a GRAM press release.
Findings from the study were published in The Lancet on Monday.
What is antimicrobial resistance?
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) occurs when bacteria and other types of germs become stronger than the medications given to treat them, creating so-called “superbugs.”
This can make infections difficult or impossible to treat, per the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
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“In modern medicine, the use of antibiotics has allowed us to successfully perform organ transplants, complex surgical procedures and care for extremely preterm infants,” Jasmine Riviere Marcelin, MD, a fellow of the Infectious Diseases Society of America and infectious diseases professor at the University of Nebraska — who was not involved in the study — told Fox News Digital.
“These interventions have been successful because antibiotics have allowed us to prevent and treat infections in these critically ill patients.”
Now, antibiotic-resistant bacteria pose a “significant health risk,” she warned, because they prevent the ability to treat or prevent infections.
“Not only will our advancements in medicine be at risk, but we may find ourselves back to where we were in the pre-antibiotic era, when mortality from simple skin/soft tissue infections was significant,” Marcelin added.
“We may find ourselves back to where we were in the pre-antibiotic era.”
Maureen Tierney, MD, associate dean of clinical research and public health at Creighton University School of Medicine in Omaha, Nebraska, was also not involved in the study, but confirmed that it is “the most comprehensive attempt to determine the burden of antimicrobial resistance [in terms of] disability and death.”
“This was an enormous effort using all different sources of data in countries around the world to estimate the number of deaths caused by microorganisms resistant to several types of antibiotics,” she told Fox News Digital.
Marking key shifts
Since 1990, the infection that caused the biggest increase was MRSA (methicillin-resistant S. aureus), a type of staph bacteria that has become resistant to some antibiotics.
Annual MRSA-related deaths increased from 57,200 in 1990 to 130,000 in 2021, the study found.
Despite the overall increase in AMR-related mortality, deaths among kids younger than 5 were cut in half between 1990 and 2021.
The researchers attributed this to childhood vaccination programs and wider access to drinking water, sanitation and hygiene practices.
The sharpest increase was among adults 70 and older, who saw a more than 80% uptick in AMR deaths.
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“Researchers expect these trends to continue in the coming decades, with AMR deaths among children under 5 projected to halve by 2050 globally, as deaths among people 70 years and older more than double,” the press release stated.
Geographically, deaths rose the most in western sub-Saharan Africa, tropical Latin America, high-income North America, Southeast Asia and South Asia.
Combating antimicrobial resistance
Next week, global health leaders plan to meet at the UN General Assembly in New York to discuss new strategies for addressing AMR.
Potential interventions include “infection prevention and control measures, such as new vaccines and antimicrobials, and improved access to water and sanitation — as well as deeper investments across health systems in diagnostics, training and new technologies,” the release stated.
“The most important ways to decrease the incidence of antibiotic resistance are vaccination for pneumonia, influenza, COVID, measles and other diseases,” Tierney from Creighton University told Fox News Digital.
Tierney also calls for “antimicrobial stewardship” – which she defines as “the judicious use of antibiotics in humans, animals and farming” – as well as infection prevention practices, especially in health care facilities, and the development of new antibiotics.
“Antibiotics are a shared natural resource that we must all protect.”
While creating new drugs is one way to combat AMR, Marcelin warned that relying only on drug discovery would be “futile,” given the length of time it takes for new medications to be developed, tested and approved.
“The number of new or repurposed antibiotics in late-stage clinical development is very small, and no single antibiotic candidate claims to have activity against those bacteria resistant to all currently available drugs,” she told Fox News Digital.
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“If we can’t make new drugs easily, we can combat resistance by controlling the spread of resistant organisms, which is the principle of infection control.”
To prevent resistance, Marcelin agrees that antibiotics should be prescribed and used “only when they are indicated, for the optimal duration, and at the right timing and dosing regimen.”
She added, “Antibiotics are a shared natural resource that we must all protect, so that we can continue to live in a world where we make medical advances and reduce mortality from bacterial infections.”
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Fox News Digital reached out to GRAM researchers requesting comment.
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