A Rising Challenge for Democrats

Posted on Wednesday, April 9, 2025

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by Shane Harris

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As if Democrats don’t already have enough problems, progressive firebrand Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) is leading Chuck Schumer in a hypothetical New York Senate primary – and is generating more buzz about a 2028 presidential bid.

According to new survey results from the liberal polling firm Data for Progress, AOC thumped the Senate Minority Leader 55 percent to 36 percent among a group of 770 likely Empire State voters when asked who their preferred candidate would be for Senate in three years. While progressives have long fantasized about elevating an original member of the “Squad” to the Senate, the Data for Progress poll is the most concrete evidence to date that such a feat might be possible.

Whether AOC would actually challenge Schumer remains an open question. But it’s no secret that there is no love lost between the two, particularly after Schumer allowed passage of a Republican-led spending bill last month – something AOC and other progressives vehemently opposed. But Schumer, who would be seeking a sixth term in 2028, has proven himself a masterful political tactician. He has deep, long-standing relationships with all the major power brokers in New York politics and business. The idea that he would lose to anyone by double digits in a primary isn’t impossible, but it is highly unlikely.

Nonetheless, the Data for Progress survey reveals that AOC’s clout has expanded beyond MSNBC and TikTok into serious discussions about who the future leaders of the Democrat Party might be. In the void left by Kamala Harris’s defeat last November, AOC has an opportunity for advancement.

That opportunity may be even bigger than the U.S. Senate. As The New York Times reported last month, many within the party see AOC as the heir apparent to Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders – and presumably his presidential ambitions as well.

At 83, Sanders is almost certainly not running for president again. 20 “progressive Democrats” who spoke with the Times said AOC is the clear leader to take up Sanders’ mantle.

Sanders himself seems to view AOC as protégé of sorts. The pair are currently in the midst of a “Fighting Oligarchy” tour that is difficult to see as anything other than a passing-the-torch moment within the progressive movement. Sanders and AOC have routinely drawn tens of thousands of cheering supporters, something few other figures in the Democrat Party can currently manage.

But Kamala Harris proved last year that rally crowds aren’t indicative of electability. As independent journalist Matt Taibbi put it in an article for his Substack “Racket News,” the idea of running AOC for president in 2028 is “an instant entrant in the Hall of Fame of Bad Ideas, on par with a Hitler bobblehead day promotion or training orangutans to pack flatware. This will not end well.”

Ever since she burst onto the scene in 2018, AOC has been a thorn in the side of Democrat leadership and a major liability for the party’s brand. She is immensely popular with the party’s left-wing base but deeply unpopular with everyone outside of that group. She epitomizes why the leadership in both parties is secretly terrified of the primary process: candidates like AOC who win primaries by appealing to a majority of the primary electorate (which is itself a small portion of the general population) cannot win a general election.

It was for this reason that the Democrat establishment conspired against Bernie Sanders in 2016 and 2020. As unfair as Sanders’ treatment was, Democrat Party leadership was probably correct that he would have lost to Trump. (Although their chosen candidate in 2016, Hillary Clinton, lost to Trump anyway.)

But 2028 will not be 2016 or 2020. The Democrat Party’s reputation is in shambles, with a record-low 29 percent favorability. The prevailing sentiment among rank-and-file Democrats is that the party establishment is not doing enough to oppose the Trump administration – opening a lane for an outsider like AOC.

Democrat Party loyalists are justified in feeling betrayed and lied to by the party. For four years, party apparatchiks and media talking heads insisted that Joe Biden was mentally competent and completely fit to serve as president. When that fraud was exposed on national television during the first presidential debate, the propaganda machine immediately turned on Biden and pivoted to recasting Kamala Harris from hapless vice president to the female Barack Obama. Then she lost in embarrassing fashion to Trump – something Democrat leadership assured their voters could not, would not, must not happen.

It thus stands to reason that AOC could have a real shot at the nomination in 2028. For voters looking to stick it to party bosses, AOC is an attractive choice in a primary.

So far, all of this sounds strikingly similar to Donald Trump’s stunning capture of the GOP nomination in 2016. Like AOC, Trump was an anti-establishment pick who harnessed the seething resentment of Republican voters who were tired of being ignored, manipulated, and lied to.

But there is one crucial difference. Trump’s platform welded together the best aspects of traditional conservative principles with modern populist nationalism and a sprinkle of old-school Democrat protections for workers. Trump forged a new agenda for the Republican Party that has broad appeal, which is exactly why he saw historic gains with Black voters, Hispanic voters, young voters, and so many other traditionally Democrat demographics last year.

AOC’s platform, on the other hand, is a toxic brand of European-style socialism and cultural Marxism that has no appeal beyond a small, noisy cohort of progressive partisans. But with the Democrat Party fractured and rudderless, those voters may be able to carry AOC to the nomination.

If AOC does mount a legitimate bid for higher office, it won’t just be a referendum on Chuck Schumer, Joe Biden, or even the Democrat establishment. It will be a clear sign of just how far left the party has shifted and how much it has failed its traditional voter base.

AOC may fire up TikTok and campus town halls, but it remains to be seen whether she can win over the people who actually show up in November — the working-class voters in Scranton, not just the activists in Brooklyn. While intra-party squabbles make for great headlines, they don’t often win elections.

Shane Harris is the Editor in Chief of AMAC Newsline. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.